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Anomalistics
On Some Unfair Practices towards Claims of the Paranormal
by Marcello Truzzi
This article was published in slightly edited form in: Edward Binkowski,
editor, Oxymoron: Annual Thematic Anthology of the Arts and Sciences,
Vol.2: The Fringe, New York: Oxymoron Media, Inc., 1998.
The reception of unconventional or extraordinary claims in
science has come under increasing attention by sociologists and
historians. Scientific anomalies have sparked scientific revolutions,
but such claims have had to fight prejudices within science. This essay
offers scattered reflections on the adjudication process confronted by
protoscientists (science "wannabes") wishing admission into the
scientific mainstream. My comments here are not intended in support of
proponents of the paranormal (for I remain a skeptic, as defined below)
but to help produce a more level playing field and a greater fairness
that might help all scientists.
Equilibrium in Science.
Philosopher Paul Feyerabend asserted that in a free society,
science is too important to be left entirely to scientists. He had a
point, for institutionalized Big Science has brought with it increased
vested interests, some of which may threaten scientific growth itself.
Though many historians and philosophers of science remind us that
science needs to remain a tentative and open system, both fallible and
probabilistic, science may, as do other human institution, develop
orthodoxies and even dogmas.
Historian Thomas Kuhn spoke of the "essential tension" in
science between its conservative need to accumulate a body of tested
knowledge and its progressive need for innovations from theory and data
that might lead to new paradigms. So, a successful scientist performs
like a circus wire-walker, engaged in a balancing act with closed minded
arrogance weighted at one end of the balancing pole and open minded
credulity weighted at the other. If either end pulls too far, a fall may
follow.
Today, I think the balance has shifted too far towards
arrogance. The emergence of a new and quasi-religious dogmatism, usually
termed Scientism, has been examined and criticized from diverse
standpoints in recent years, particularly those of Tom Sorell, Mary
Midgley and Bryan Appleyard. Though some critics of Scientism take an
anti-science stance, we need not go so far to recognize some current
excesses. And though some postmodernists and others question the basic
epistemology of science, my concern here is only with metaphysical
debates over what phenomena science should judge to be "real,"
especially controversial claims for the reality of anomalies (ranging
from alleged processes like extra-sensory perception and psychokinesis
--the claims of the parasciences-- to bizarre physical things like
bigfoot and UFOs -- the claims of the cryptosciences). My complaints
here, then, are only with scientists' violations of their own professed
method; in fact, I agree with those who contend that science
fundamentally IS its method rather than its tentative substantive
content.
On Impossibilities and Errors.
In their "Introduction" to No Way: The Nature of the Impossible,
mathematician Philip J. Davis and physicist David Park concluded that
although we may have conceptions of the impossible, we cannot have
absolute knowledge of it, for "There is no criterion of impossibility."
In line with this, philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce earlier argued
that our first obligation must be to do nothing that might block
inquiry. Yet, some, claiming to speak in the name of science now demand
doors be closed on many subjects. Although science can only assert that
extraordinary events are highly improbable, some critics speak of "laws
of denial" as though we can prejudge some empirical events impossible so
unnecessary to investigate. Such defenders of the status quo often
engage in ridicule and sarcastic rhetoric that is deemed uncivil in
normal scientific discourse, and sociologists of science Harry M.
Collins and Trevor J. Pinch have gone so far as to characterize some
such activities as scientific "vigilantism."
Such defenses of orthodoxy are not surprising, and they
typically stem from an honest desire to avoid mistakenly thinking
something special is happening when it really is not (what statisticians
have termed a Type I Error). This error is embodied in the aphorism "all
that glitter is not gold." However, proponents of esoteric claims are
often more concerned with avoiding the mistake of thinking nothing
special is going on when it actually is (the statistician's Type II
Error). Their attitude is exemplified by the folk maxim that we "should
not throw the baby out with the bath water." These contrasting types of
error, and our need to follow a path avoiding both, are central to
Kuhn's "essential tension" in science; and I think much of the
difference between proponents and critics of extraordinary claims in
science may center on which of these two types of error is designated as
the more dangerous. The Chinese character for "crisis" consists of
combining the symbols for "danger" and "opportunity." Such is the case
with the paradigm crisis inherent in an extraordinary science claim,
usually consisting of an alleged anomaly (a fact in search of theory).
Conservatives in science typically view anomalies as dangers (threats to
currently accepted theories) whereas progressives (proponents) of such
claims see them as "opportunities" (stimulants for theory
reconstruction).
On Heresy, Scientism and Discrediting the Paranormal.
As conservative science confronts the threat of anomalies, it
may defend itself with excessive zeal. So much so that some organized
critics of anomalies have even been characterized as a "New Inquisition"
seeking to stamp out the heresies against an orthodoxy of Scientism.
Ironically, since he was himself a prominent critic of many anomaly
claims, Isaac Asimov distinguished between "exoheretics" (outsiders to a
field)) versus "endoheretics" (insiders or professional colleagues) in
science. Endoheretics are usually accorded greater courtesy than are
exoheretics. Thus, I have found, endoheretics are more likely to be
described as "cranks" (tenacious) and as making "errors," while
exoheretics are openly called "crackpots" (crazy) and are accused of
"fraud." The strongest pejorative labels such as "pseudoscience" and
"pathology" tend to be ascribed to the claims and methods of
exoheretics.
In the effort to discredit anomaly claims, critics often
characterized them as "miracles," and any connections with past
religious or occult support tends to get them labelled "supernatural" or
"magical." This is particularly unfortunate, because terms like
"paranormal" were originally introduced to naturalize the supernatural.
Protoscientific proponents of the paranormal insist that the paranormal
is part of the natural order and consists of anomalies amenable to
scientific investigation and possible verification. While occultists and
theologians have recognized this difference between the paranormal and
the supernatural, many "scientific" critics merely lump them together as
"transcendental nonsense." Because of this, many critics of the
paranormal mistakenly invoke David Hume's famous argument against
miracles when dealing with claims of the paranormal. In fact, Hume
distinguished between merely extraordinary events and miracles (which
must involve divine volition and a suspension of the laws of nature).
Most critics of the paranormal seem unaware of the voluminous literature
distinguishing "marvels" (anomalies of nature) from "miracles." A major
practical consequence of such semantic confusion is the false impression
that anomalies can largely be discredited a priori so need no further
investigation. Such rhetoric thus blocks inquiry.
As psychologist Ray Hyman has noted, many scientists may be
more interested in discrediting than in disproving claims of the
extraordinary. This can lead to poor scholarship and methods below
normal professional standards, and it also results in ad hominem
attacks and rhetorical tricks rather than solid falsification. Hyman
noted it can also lead to the use of "hit men" (nonscientists such as
journalists or even magicians) encouraged to discredit the claimants.
Such nonscientists have argued about the need to "fight fire with fire"
and the advantages of "horselaughs" over arguments and evidence. Such
counterattacks themselves constitute a form of pathology within science.
As philosopher (and critic of the paranormal) Mario Bunge put it: "the
occasional pressure to suppress it [dissent] in the name of the
orthodoxy of the day is even more injurious to science than all the
forms of pseudoscience put together."
Skeptics or Scoffers?
Perhaps the most insidious rhetorical trick has been the
misappropriation of the label "skeptic" to describe what are actually
scoffers . As sociologist Robert K. Merton pointed out, organized
skepticism is a fundamental norm in science. However, the term
skepticism is properly defined as doubt, not denial. It is a position of
agnosticism, of nonbelief rather than disbelief. The true skeptic (a
doubter) asserts no claim, so has no burden of proof. However, the
scoffer (denier) asserts a negative claim, so the burden of proof
science places on any claimant must apply. When scoffers misrepresent
their position as a form of "hard-line" skepticism, they really seek
escape from their burden to prove a negative position.
Perhaps the greatest confusion related to the needed distinction
between skeptics and scoffers concerns their different reactions to the
failure by a claimant to support an anomaly claim. The skeptics'
attitude towards extraordinary claims (for example, those of
parapsychology) where proponents have so far produced inadequate
evidence to convince most scientists that their hypotheses about
anomalies are true is characterized as a case not proven. A skeptic
contends that "the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." The
scoffer, on the other hand, sees the failure of proponents as evidence
that an anomaly claim has been disproved. The perspective of the
scoffer, as with most dogmatists, tends to distinguish only black from
white and fails to acknowledge gray areas. (Our criminal justice system
may likewise be too dichotomous. Thus, similar reasoning led some
citizens to conclude that the murder acquittal of O.J. Simpson meant he
was judged innocent when he was merely found to be not guilty. Science
might better follow the path of Scottish Law which allows for three
possible judgements: guilty, not guilty or innocent, and not proven.)
Scoffers use a similar foreshortening towards issues of
evidence. It is common to hear statements to the effect that "there is
no evidence supporting a claim" when in fact it is merely inadequate
evidence that has been presented. Evidence is always a matter of degree,
some being extremely weak; but even weak evidence can mount up (as shown
by meta-analysis) to produce a stronger case. Weak evidence (most
commonly anecdotal rather than systematic and experimental evidence) is
often discounted, however, by assertions that it falls below some
threshold of what science should consider evidence at all. This, of
course, eliminates the evidential basis for most of clinical medicine
and the social sciences, but that seems to hold no terror for the
scoffer who invokes such criteria.
Shifting Goal Posts and Rubber Rulers.
As proponents of anomalies produce stronger evidence, critics
have sometimes moved the goal posts further away. This is especially
clear in the case of parapsychology. To convince scientists of what had
been merely been supported by widespread but weak anecdotal evidence,
parapsychologists moved psychical research into the laboratory. When
experimental results were presented, designs were criticized. When
protocols were improved, a "fraud proof" or "critical experiment" was
demanded. When those were put forward, replications were demanded. When
those were produced, critics argued that new forms of error might be the
cause (such as the "file drawer" error that could result from
unpublished negative studies). When meta-analyses were presented to
counter that issue, these were discounted as controversial, and ESP was
reduced to being some present but unspecified "error some place" in the
form of what Ray Hyman called the "dirty test tube argument" (claiming
dirt was in the tube making the seeming psi result a mere artifact). And
in one instance, when the scoffer found no counter-explanations, he
described the result as a "mere anomaly" not to be taken seriously so
just belonging on a puzzle page. The goal posts have now been moved into
a zone where some critics hold unfalsifiable positions.
Scoffers are typically quick to demand good methodology when
dealing with extraordinary claims, insisting on such things as
replications, control groups, double-blind experiments, and the rule of
parsimony (Ockham's Razor). They often write of the cognitive fallacies
committed by paranormalists. In the process, however, they overlook the
same need for rigor in many areas they defend. Thus, alternative
medicine is denounced for its failure to demonstrate claims with proper
experiments, ignoring the absence of experimental evidence in many areas
of orthodox medicine (for example, in surgery). And scoffers denounce
"psychic" counsellors but don't bother to do controlled experiments
comparing them to orthodox advisors such as psychiatrists, clinical
psychologists, and social workers.
Psychologists who complain about inadequate replication levels
in parapsychology seem unaware of the dismal record of replication with
conventional psychology. They also fail to note that what constitutes a
replication is itself often a matter of controversy, and, as Harry
Collins has shown, often involves social negotiation.
Astronomers who inveigh against neo-astrology seem unbothered by
the nonfalsifiability of many current fashions in their own cosmological
theories, and they seem to have forgotten that gravity was once rejected
by Newton's fellow scientists over the assertion that there could be
"action at a distance." Scoffers seem to assume a unity in science,
forgetting that history reveals many disagreement among science's
branches, such as physicist Lord Kelvin's (then reasonable) arguments
against Darwin's theory of evolution since the sun was too young to
allow the time Darwin's theory required (fusion had not yet been
discovered).
The rule of parsimony asserts that the simplest adequate theory
should be preferred, but, as Mario Bunge has shown in his book on the
subject, the concept of simplicity is far from a simple matter. In
addition, the presumption that conventional explanations adequately
cover extraordinary claims is usually the very issue at hand, so
invoking parsimony can sometimes beg the question.
When criticizing the paranormal, scientists who are scoffers
usually fail to bring the same professional standards expected of them
in their own fields. This is particularly evident when one looks at
their praise for articles reporting experiments on the paranormal that
obtained negative results. Some of these articles contain questionable
methods and conclusions and probably would never have passed peer review
had they shown positive results.
Extraordinary Claims versus Extraordinary Proof.
In his famous 1748 essay Of Miracles, the great skeptic David
Hume asserted that "A wise man...proportions his belief to the
evidence,"and he said of testimony for extraordinary claims that "the
evidence, resulting from the testimony, admits of a diminution, greater
or less, in proportion as the fact is more unusual." A similar statement
was made by Laplace, and many other later writers. I turned it into the
now popular phrase "extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof"
(which Carl Sagan popularized into what is almost the war cry of some
scoffers). As anomalistic psychologists Leonard Zusne and Warren H.
Jones observed, this demand "may be not only used but misused to the
point where no amount of evidence of a paranormal claim will avail
against a skeptic who has already prejudged the issue." The central
problem however lies in the fact that "extraordinary" must be relative
to some things "ordinary." and as our theories change, what was once
extraordinary may become ordinary (best seen in now accepted quantum
effects that earlier were viewed as "impossible"). Many now
extraordinary claims may become more acceptable not when they are
replicated but when theoretical contexts change to make them more
welcome.
A Catch-22 in the Burden of Proof?
In criminal law, the burden of proof is assigned to the
prosecution; in the court of science, it is placed on the defender of
the deviant science claim. Whereas, in our British-based legal system,
the defendant is presumed innocent until proven guilty, in science the
maverick scientist is presumed "guilty" (of error) until proven
"innocent." This is appropriate since science must basically be
conservative in its own defense against myriad would-be invaders. But it
is important to remember that the proponent of the paranormal has an
uphill battle from the start. The chips are stacked against him, so his
assault is not so threatening to the fabric of science as scoffers often
characterize it. In a sense, conservative science has "the law" on its
side.
In law, we find three varieties in the weight of burden of
proof: - proof by preponderance of evidence,
clear and convincing
proof, and, in criminal law, proof beyond a reasonable doubt. In
conventional science, we usually use (1), but when dealing with
extraordinary claims, critics often seem to demand (3) since they demand
all alternative explanations must be eliminated before the maverick
claim is acceptable. This demand sometimes becomes unreasonable and may
even make the scoffer's position unfalsifiable. Since the anomaly
proponent is already saddled with a presumption of "guilt," it would
seem to me that (2), clear and convincing proof, might be the best
standard, though proponents may reasonably wonder why standard (1)
should always be denied them.
A Recommendation.
In addition to recognizing and working through the issues I have
raised above, we need scaled terms to deal with levels of evidence for
the best of the extraordinary claims put forth by protoscientists.
Scientists might well distinguish between extraordinary claims that are:
suggestive, meaning interesting and worthy of attention but generally of
low priority; compelling, meaning the evidence is strongly supportive
and argues for assigning a higher scientific priority for greater
investigation; and convincing, meaning most reasonable scientists
examining the evidence would agree at least a preponderance of evidence
supports the claim. Using such graded language might help us turn from
our present debates, with room only for winners and losers, into
dialogues between peers, all of whom should want to see science
judiciously progress. We can all be winners.
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