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Anomalistics
A Spectrum of Belief
William S. Moulton
Adapted from a paper by the Author, circa 1990
There is a wide spectrum of levels of consensus and belief, and of the
conditions required to achieve them. For example, a situation may be: -
Assumed -- when it is "common knowledge," accepted on a default basis,
and no evidence to the contrary has been presented or recognized
-
Certain, True or Proven -- when evidence is conclusive or compelling
-
Believed -- in Law, when there is a credible and reliable informant
who is a witness
-
Likely -- in Law, when the summary of evidence is in favor
-
Probable -- when at least one item of direct, verifiable evidence
exists
-
Plausible -- when consensus-logic arguments "for" are stronger than
those "against"
-
Uncertain -- when evidence and arguments "for" and "against" seem
equally plausible.
-
Doubted -- in Law, if the existence of a competing or mutually-
exclusive situation is suspected
-
Unlikely -- in Law, when the summary of evidence disfavors it
-
Improbable -- when direct or indirect, verifiable evidence is
missing
-
Implausible -- when arguments "against" are stronger than those "for,"
or where consensus logic cannot ascertain consistency or cause
and effect)
-
Suspected -- In Law, when not believed, but there is some suggested
evidence or argument to support it.
-
Possible -- where no necessary conditions "for" are violated
-
Disbelieved -- in Law, when a credible and reliable informant is a
witness to direct contrary evidence
-
Impossible, False or Disproven -- when all necessary conditions for
belief are violated or disallowed by conclusive evidence
-
Not Suspected -- is not considered, or there exists some generally-
accepted reason to deny it.
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