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Anomalistics

A Spectrum of Belief

William S. Moulton

Adapted from a paper by the Author, circa 1990

There is a wide spectrum of levels of consensus and belief, and of the conditions required to achieve them. For example, a situation may be:

  • Assumed -- when it is "common knowledge," accepted on a default basis, and no evidence to the contrary has been presented or recognized
  • Certain, True or Proven -- when evidence is conclusive or compelling
  • Believed -- in Law, when there is a credible and reliable informant who is a witness
  • Likely -- in Law, when the summary of evidence is in favor
  • Probable -- when at least one item of direct, verifiable evidence exists
  • Plausible -- when consensus-logic arguments "for" are stronger than those "against"
  • Uncertain -- when evidence and arguments "for" and "against" seem equally plausible.
  • Doubted -- in Law, if the existence of a competing or mutually- exclusive situation is suspected
  • Unlikely -- in Law, when the summary of evidence disfavors it
  • Improbable -- when direct or indirect, verifiable evidence is missing
  • Implausible -- when arguments "against" are stronger than those "for," or where consensus logic cannot ascertain consistency or cause and effect)
  • Suspected -- In Law, when not believed, but there is some suggested evidence or argument to support it.
  • Possible -- where no necessary conditions "for" are violated
  • Disbelieved -- in Law, when a credible and reliable informant is a witness to direct contrary evidence
  • Impossible, False or Disproven -- when all necessary conditions for belief are violated or disallowed by conclusive evidence
  • Not Suspected -- is not considered, or there exists some generally- accepted reason to deny it.

 

 

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